The Nation and Wikileak's revelations - FOR weeks now, the nation has been held spell-bound by the revelations contained in US diplomatic cables published on the Wikileaks website to the effect that former President Olusegun Obasanjo actually had plans to sack the then Chairman of Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Prof. Maurice Iwu for his refusal to cancel the scheduled 2007 general elections and hand the president an opportunity to elongate his tenure.

The diplomatic cable report marked "secret," but exposed on the Wikileaks website, alleged that Obasanjo, as president, had planned a series of actions aimed at ensuring that the elections did not hold as a way of achieving his desired tenure elongation; having failed in his third term bid.

Part of the plots designed by Obasanjo, the US Cable report alleged, was the sack of Prof. Iwu and the creation of serious crisis at the commission so as to create enough grounds to argue that INEC was not prepared to conduct the general elections.

Apart from plotting the sack of Iwu who, according to the diplomatic cable was viewed as stubborn and bent on frustrating Obasanjo's plans, by refusing to announce a postponement of the election using alleged failure of the voter registration exercise as alibi, the president was also said to have plotted starving the commission of funds to prepare for the said election.

The revelations have continued to generate reactions from everywhere and across the country. Recently, a civil society group, Integrity in Governance Alliance (IGA) had called for a probe of the 2007 general elections to determine the allegations by Wikileaks.

Making the call at a media parley in Lagos, coordinator of the group, Dr. Alhassan Umar Gubio, accompanied by other members of the group, said the probe has become necessary in order for the country to properly place the 2007 general elections in its proper context and find better ways of insulating presidents from direct interference in the affairs of the electoral commission.

According to Dr. Gubio, such a probe will either prove the US Diplomatic Cable right or wrong and as such help Nigerians to know exactly how they were governed and also know exactly who to hold responsible for the failures that were recorded in 2007.

Reviewing the disclosures, Dr. Gubio said: "They were grave. These are grave revelations and we as a people who were governed are entitled to proper knowledge of what transpired between President Obasanjo and Iwu in the conduct of the 2007 general elections. It is not enough for us to accept that the election was flawed. We also need to establish and document issues that made it a flawed election. By embarking on such a probe, we would also be properly documenting our history for the sake of the future generation," he said.

According to Wikileaks, in a discussion between the then National Security Adviser Gen. Aliyu Mohammed and US Ambassador to Nigeria, John Campbell, Obasanjo was alleged to have plotted simultaneous nationwide riots as an alibi for seeking tenure extension.

Quoting Mohammed, the diplomatic cable report said Obasanjo had also deliberately chosen Late Umaru Yar'Adua as the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential candidate despite being aware of his terrible health condition as a way of perpetuating himself in power. He allegedly believed that the candidate would not survive the rigours of a presidential election campaign; thereby presenting Obasanjo with an opportunity to maintain a strong presence in the presidency, even after his second tenure.

Mohammed claimed that even Yar'Adua had protested but was forced on the race by Obasanjo. The diplomatic cable report referenced 06ABUJA3181 was titled "Aliyu Mohammed predicts Obasanjo will remain in power." It emanated from the US embassy in Abuja and dated December 12, 2006 and classified by Amb. John Campbell.

According to the report: "At his own request, Aliyu Mohammed called on the Ambassador the evening of December 11. He was accompanied by bodyguards and escorted by a chase car with MOPOL police, unusual for a person who as National Security Advisor routinely drove himself alone. The purpose of the visit was to argue to the ambassador the unsuitability of Yar'Adua as President of Nigeria, and to present the Katsina governor's candidacy as part of President Obasanjo's efforts to retain power."

It further stated that "a few days ago, Aliyu continued, the PDP executive had changed the party's bye-laws and established the position of "Party Chairman for Life", to which it appointed President Obasanjo. From this perch, Obasanjo could pull the strings of a Yar'Adua/Uba administration... However, Aliyu said, the selection of Yar'Adua and Uba is a clear sign that Obasanjo is not "serious" about holding elections at all.

Obasanjo wanted the INEC Chairman, Prof. Iwu to call for postponement of elections because of the breakdown in the registration procedures. Alternatively, Obasanjo is keeping open the possibility of firing Iwu and using that as the pretext for elections postponement. And then there is the good possibility that Yar'Adua will not survive the rigors of a Nigeria presidential campaign. His death could also be the pretext for postponing elections."

Further, Gen. Gusau was alleged to have told Amb. Campbell of his beliefs that riots had been planned so as to create an environment that would enable Obasanjo perpetrate himself in power.

He was quoted as saying: "A Yar'Adua/Uba PDP ticket, combined by the postponement of elections, Aliyu continued, would certainly lead to widespread unrest. He predicted coordinated rioting in all of Nigeria's major cities, probably in a late January/February timeframe."

The NSA however expressed confidence that the Yar'Adua/Uba ticket as plotted by Obasanjo will not fly as despite bribing of delegates, the plot was likely to fail like the third term plot.

"There is a good chance that Obasanjo will be stymied at the PDP convention. Despite Villa bribe-paying and manipulating of the delegates in other ways, he thought there was a good chance that the May, 2006 National Assembly defeat of Third Term would be repeated; such is the revulsion at a Yar'Adua/Uba ticket," he said.

Quoting Gen. Mohammed further, the Diplomatic Cable report said: "Yar'Adua, Aliyu Mohammed said, suffers from a kidney disease and is on dialysis four times a week. In addition, he is subject to blackouts, probably related to epilepsy. He also suffers from other possibly unrelated mental conditions, is on constant medication for them, and has received psychiatric treatment in Germany. The dialysis machine was installed at the Katsina gubernatorial residence by the German construction firm Julius Berger.

"Because of these illnesses, Aliyu continued, Yar'Adua has become a recluse, rarely leaving his residence, and is almost unknown amongst the Northern power elite... Aliyu Mohammed, saying he was quoting Yar'Adua directly, said that Obasanjo had "ordered" the Katsina governor to contest for the presidency. When Yar'Adua objected that the state of his health precluded it, Obasanjo countered that "God will cure you," and undertook to cover all medical expenses.

Counting the losses, one observer, Benjamin Obiajulu Aduba said of the revelation: "It is obvious that Nigerians lost big with the disclosures of the shenanigans playing out in Abuja, Lagos, and other big Nigerian cities. They have lost confidence in their leaders whether they are PDP, ACN, ANPP, CPC or whatever flag they fly. They now know that all they did was planning to steal from them and that all the public posturing was geared towards one end only: to loot. I doubt that this is news to anybody. They were just confirmations of what we have always believed. Of course I am aware that a sizable portion of what was revealed was beer parlor gossips, to use the now popular expression."

He expressed the belief that the US ambassadors in Nigeria of the past were also among the losers. "Many of them are currently hawking their wares as African experts and making comfortable living expressing opinions on the all issues about Nigeria and Africa from let's say the inner workings of Okija Shrine, Boko HarAm to the death of Ali Baba and forty thieves in Katsina. They know everything about everything. For lying to their audience they collect a hefty consultation fees much higher than JonJon (Ms. Okonjo-Iweala's brother) allegedly got from El Rufai. Now that they have been exposed as the liars they are, the claim to influence and to having contacts in Nigeria is gone.

"Their Nigerian contacts have now realized that they cannot be depended on to keep their secret conversations secret. The ambassadors are now seen as merely promoting their careers just as other men in other jobs do; that there are no common grounds for mutual business dealings. In other words their sources (the bread and butter of diplomatic dealings) have now evaporated," Aduba said further.

Continuing, he added: "One immediate sign the public would notice right away is the decline in the number of TV and Radio exposure they would be engaging in; the decline of the number of invitations they will be receiving to participate in one forum or another.

"The loss by these fellows may actually be Nigerians' gains. Our leaders would now have to stay home and do some kind of governing as they try to renegotiate their contract with Nigeria as they figure out how much the international adventure has paid off. All politics are local as my former representative and Speaker of the US House, Mr. Tip O'Neil once taught the world.

"Nigerian leaders would have to regain the confidence of Nigerians such that they can begin again to flaunt their influence and ability to get things done in Nigeria. Even the awards of oil contracts would be a little bit more open allowing Nigerians to retain more of the revenue that had always been theirs but which the Americans and Europeans were allowed to steal from them with tacit and sometimes open support from Nigerian leadership."

Meanwhile, another commentator, Olufemi Awoyemi said thus of the allegation: "I do not for a second believe that the collection of tales, gossips and lack of discretion collated by US officials is not reflective of the interactions that took place between the parties so recorded.

"Second, the cables confirm our worst fears about our state of the nation and the subsequent commentaries therefrom confirm as much. If the purpose of the rebranding project was to eliminate the corruption perception locals and the international community have about us, these cables represents a PR disaster at best - suggesting we may be a long way from the transformation we need," Awoyemi said.

So it does seem that the call for probe into the 2007 general elections is in place; it should unveil some of the circumstances that made that year's election the most flawed outing of the INEC in Nigeria's current democratic experience.

Patience Akpuru

Daily Champion/20/09/2011