Kampala, Uganda - Leading Ugandan opposition leader, Dr. Kizza Besigye, has likened the political situation in the landlocked East African country to those of Tunisia and Egypt, warning that the conditions for popular protest against the presidency of Yoweri Museveni's 25-year-long rule are ripe. Citing the unwavering civil uprising in Tunisia and Egypt, Dr. Besigye, who lost two elections under controversial circumstances in 2001 and 2006, said he would rely on popular support once the 18 February elections are rigged in favour of incumbent Museveni – his former guerrilla comrade.

“A government that takes away people's freedoms invites violent protests. We have seen what is happening in Tunisia and Egypt. When governments deny people their right to choose who leads them and how they are governed, violence becomes inevitable,” Dr. Besigye warned.

“In Uganda, conditions are ripe for a popular protest like we have seen in Cote d'Ivoire and Tunisia, later Egypt and Yemen. It is not really new. It happened before in eastern Europe,” Dr. Besigye told a news conference after a meeting with visiting US Deputy Secretary of State for Africa, John Carson, on Friday.

Dr, Besigye, a retired army Colonel who the supreme court twice confirmed to have been rigged out in 2001 and 2006 but could not overturn results for fresh polls, said he would only appeal to the court of public opinion.

“If our victory is stolen for the third time, it is to the court of public opinion that I will appeal. I will not go to court, but instead rely on the popular resistance of voters,” Besigye said, adding that “this I have told Mr. Carson in our meeting today.”

Dr. Besigye further revealed that together with two other opposition leaders vying for presidency -- former UN envoy Ambassador Olara Otunu of Uganda People Congress (UPC), Nobert Mao of Democratic Party (DP) -- they briefed Carson on "the challenges faced in this biased election.

“We told him what we intend to do in the event of the election again stolen and what we expect the international community to do or not to do at this critical moment,” Besigye revealed.

“We briefed him on government's plans ranging from continued bias against us (opposition) by election officials, lack of voter identities as required by law to security issues, including those militias trained around the country. Others are trained in military barracks."

He, however, expressed optimism in winning the election despite the ground not being favourable, saying, “our victory will be achieved in spite of the efforts of the President Museveni-led government and a biased electoral Commission to rig, not because the process is free and fair.”

Unlike the two horse races in 2001 and 2006, President Museveni who has been in power for 25 years, is accused by seven opponents of rigging the elections even before they are held by, among others, using officials he nominated to head the body overseeing the elections, training illegal militia groups and bribing voters using public funds.

Independent analysts, Civil Society Organizations, the government, donors and other stakeholders appear to agree that major reforms are necessary to improve the electoral process in Uganda.

Yet little has been done so far although the 2011 presidential and parliamentary elections are due in two weeks.

Prof. Joe Oloka-Onyango, the Director of the Human Rights and Peace Centre (HURIPEC) and former Dean of Law at Makerere University, explains why the delay could be a ploy to foment electoral fraud.

“You know that in history, electoral laws are most delayed. They submit them to Parliament and discuss them on the eve of the election. So there is no time for the so-called discussion, internalisation, no time for understanding anything about the law, or what it might be saying differently from the previous laws,” Prof. Oloka said.

“It is part of the rigging process. You delay the enactment of these laws so that people are taken by surprise."

Pana/04/02/2011