East Africa - The Kenya General elections will adversely affect neighbouring countries if it turned out to be violent. Stakeholders say since Kenya is the biggest economy in East Africa, violence or uncertainty might disrupt most of the factors of production to lower output and exports to the region.
"If it turns violent there is high degree of losing a lot economically, as what will happen to Kenya will affect the entire EAC bloc," Dr Honest Ngowi of Mzumbe University's Dar es Salam Business School said. The senior lecturer said should the elections continue to be calm as the current situation suggests, then "there will be no danger at all. It's good for the region's economy."
"I haven't done any analysis, but it may increase the inflow of tourists who fear the occurrence of hostility in Kenya," Dr Ngowi said.
On the other hand, Precision Air's Commercial Director, Mr Patrick Ndekana said the number of Nairobi-Kilimanjaro or Nairobi-Dar es Salaam passengers has not gone up so far. "The passengers' number has not gone up, I think it is at normal level," Mr Ndekana said. According to CIA fact book, Africa is Kenya's largest export market, followed by the European Union (EU).
Standard Chartered Bank observed two years ago that Tanzania's current GDP (PPP) was 64 billion US dollars, which puts it in 7th place in Africa, while Kenya's GDP which was 72 billion US dollars puts it in 6th place. On investment portfolio, Dr Ngowi said there might be a transfer of fund as investors foresee uncertainty in Nairobi to hedge their funds in Dar es Salaam.
Though Zan Securities Chief Executive Officer Mr Raphael Masumbuko said he was not sure of that movement but have observed that the Kenya's tallying delay might have a positive effect on the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange.
By Abduel Elinaza
Tanzania Daily News/08/03/2013