Cape Town, South Africa -  Africa will increasingly play an important role in China’s long-term food security agenda over the next decade, as demand for food in the world’s most populous nation threatens to outstrip its supply, according to Standard Bank research analysts Simon Freemantle and Jeremy Stevens.
In their latest paper, “China’s Food security challenge: What role for Africa?” which was obtained by PANA, Freemantle and Stevens claimed China is facing serious strains on both the demand and supply side of its agricultural sector and will in the next few years have to look externally to supplement its sources of food supply.

“Rising incomes and urbanisation are leading to dramatic increases in food consumption in China. China now consumes the second most amount of food in the world, behind the USA. It is expected that by 2015, China’s total food expenditure will double to over US$1 trillion,' they said.

Meanwhile, China is facing increasing strains on agricultural supply, as urbanisation and industrialisation are swallowing up farmland, and diminishing water tables, they wrote.

'Between 1996 and 2006, China lost 9 million hectares of farmland,” the analysts said.

While for now China can and will look to its own sources to provide for the bulk of new demand, it is increasingly evident that China will be unable to ensure low-cost food for its large population without ramping up external sources of nutrition.

Consequently, the authors note, Beijing is expected to increasingly align its aid and outward investment in agriculture to access new opportunities.

They said further: “In Africa, two core areas create an allure for China. First, given the manner in which the continent’s agricultural sector has persistently under-performed, the provision of developmental and technical assistance allows Beijing an important avenue in fostering and building deeper bilateral ties.

'And, second, sub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA) immense and largely untapped agricultural potential is being increasingly viewed by China as a cog in an unfolding and inclusive food security strategy. For now, China’s strategy is overtly developmental and, though commercialism inspires many of the cooperative farming projects, profits are generated almost entirely in local and regional markets.”

They noted that it is already clear that Beijing is seeking to build deeper relationships in agriculture with land-rich and politically-stable countries that are friendly to China, such as Mozambique where China has made expansive agricultural investments.

Pana 23/11/2011