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Feb 10th
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Elections-Liberia: Two horse race for 2011 elections

Politics - Liberians are expected to go to the polls tomorrow, October 11, to elect a democratic president for the second time, eight years after the devastating civil war that set the country back many years in development. About 1.8 eligible voters are expected to vote at 1,780 polling precincts across 19 electoral magistrates, to elect a president out of 16 presidential candidates with their running mates. In addition, there are 99 senatorial candidates contesting for 15 seats , while there are 793 candidates contesting for 73 seats in the House of Representatives.

This election is a watershed in the country's new democratic dispensation and would serve as a test to the willingness of the people to fully embrace the rule of law and good governance.

Out of the sixteen candidates contesting to lead Liberians into a new era of peace and prosperity, two candidates lead the pack, current President Ellen Sirleaf-Johnson of Unity party (UP) and main opposition candidate Winston Tubman, a 70 Harvard-trained lawyer with a crowd-pulling former football star George Weah as vice candidate of the Congress for Democratic Change (CDC).

Whilst many pundits believe this two horse race may well be a close call and a likely second round is possible, both President Sirleaf-Johnson and Tubman in huge rallies over the last week have predicted a first-round win for their respective parties.

The recent award of a Nobel peace prize to president Sirleaf-Johnson a few days before the election has not helped matters, with CDC party leaders accusing the international community of conspiring to get President Sirleaf re-elected.

CDC presidential candidate Winston Tubman said that, in light of Sirleaf-Johnson's wartime record, he was "shocked" to hear about the peace prize, "Ellen does not deserve that," he said. "It's the opposite. She contributed to the war in Liberia."

In spite of the seeming fierce mistrust between the two leading parties, they both agree that violence is a thing of the past. S. Tornorlah Varpilah, campaign Manager of the UP in an interview with AEP said, he cannot foresee any level of electoral violence taking place during the elections "

Liberians have moved on from war and no one will put their life in jeopardy and most people are prepared to keep the peaceful atmosphere being enjoyed in country at the moment.' he added.

He reaffirmed that the UP and President Sirleaf-Johnson is prepared to accept the outcome of the results if they lose "after all Liberia is bigger than any single individual and we at UP will respect the verdict and views of the people."

With renewed economic interest in Liberia's abundant natural resources such as rubber and iron ore, this election is being closely observed by the international community. Over 650 observers have descended on the tiny seaside city of Monrovia where over 35 per cent of the electorate is based.

Also coming on the back of the recent post-election violence in Cote D'ivoire, ECOWAS (the regional economic block) is keeping a close eye on this election. Prof. Attahiru Jega who heads the ECOWAS observer's mission says "from the level of preparations, and what I have observed in terms of the manner of deployment of electoral personnel and material, I think Liberia is on course for a successful election".

On the streets of Liberia, the people for whom this election means everything, are excited about the upcoming elections. In a clearly polarized political atmosphere, the division between the views of UP and CDC are evident.

David Wukolo a UP supporter says the turnout at the party's final campaign rally says it all, "massive, massive, gigantic crowd...never ever seen before... ..No second round...Wow!!!!!! Long Live Liberia; Long Live Ellen Sirleaf-Johnson!"

Lewis Wah of the CDC says "the writing is on the wall, for those that have eyes let them see, for those that have ears let them hear. Liberia is all we have and all we belong to. In every election there is always one winner. The winner of October 11, 2011 poll will be a Liberian in the person of Winston Tubman."

Full results for the presidential candidates are expected to be announced on October 26, 2011 according to the National Election Commission (NEC) Chairman, James Fromayan.

African Elections Project/11/10/2011